S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Plunge to 6-Month Low đ
US stocks fell sharply on Friday due to trade policy uncertainty, concerns over economic growth, and skepticism about future AI returns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped over 1%, while the Dow fell more than 300 points. President Trump delayed some tariffs but vowed more aggressive levies, adding to unpredictability and denting demand for riskier assets. The economy added fewer jobs than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose.
The news article highlights several negative factors that could impact the overall portfolio, including trade policy uncertainty, concerns over economic growth, and skepticism about future AI returns. These factors could have a significant negative impact on the portfolio's performance, especially given the exposure to US and European equities, as well as technology stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Meta.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Fall to 4-Month Lows đ
US stocks fell sharply due to concerns over trade wars and uncertainty around economic policy, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all declining significantly. The developments added to growth concerns following weak labor data, and tech stocks led the losses.
The article discusses negative market conditions that could impact the overall portfolio, particularly the long positions in the S&P 500, European markets, and tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and AMD.
US Stocks Sink, Tech Shares Plunge đ
US stocks fell sharply on Thursday due to investor uncertainty over tariffs and disappointing earnings, with chip stocks like Marvell Technology, Nvidia, and Broadcom trading lower. Alibaba also unveiled a new generative AI model, further fueling concerns about China's advancements in the sector.
The news about the decline in US stocks, particularly in the chip and technology sectors, as well as the ongoing trade tensions, is likely to have a negative impact on the portfolio, which has significant exposure to the US and technology stocks.
US Job Cuts Highest Since 2020 đ
US employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February 2025, the highest value since July 2020 and the highest for the month of February since 2009, driven by government efficiency actions, canceled government contracts, trade war fears, and bankruptcies.
The high number of job cuts across various sectors indicates a weakening economic environment, which could negatively impact the overall portfolio performance, especially the long positions in the S&P500, European, and emerging market indices.
US S&P Services PMI Revised Higher to Show Expansion đ
The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 51 in February 2025, reflecting the softest growth in services activity since November 2023, as new business activity slowed due to uncertainty related to government policy and trade tariffs, which also drove a decline in export demand and headcount reduction.
The decline in the US Services PMI, which is a key indicator of economic activity, suggests a slowdown in the services sector. This could have a negative impact on the portfolio's exposure to the S&P500, which makes up 24% of the holdings.
US 10-Year Yield Declines Further đ
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell amid concerns over a weakening US economy, with disappointing private sector job growth and escalating trade tensions with major trading partners.
The article highlights negative economic data and trade policy developments that could weigh on the overall market performance, which is relevant for the portfolio's long positions in major equity indexes and individual stocks.
Dow, S&P Trim Losses as Nasdaq Turns Positive đ
US equities trimmed losses as trade tensions escalated, with new tariffs imposed by the US and retaliatory measures from Canada and China. Tesla's vehicle sales in China plunged, while GM and Ford shares fell on concerns over rising costs from tariffs.
The escalating trade tensions and tariffs are likely to have a negative impact on the overall portfolio, particularly the long positions in US equities, European markets, and the automotive industry.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield at Over 4-Month Lows đ
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.15%, a level not seen since late October, as the escalating trade war raised concerns about the economic impact of new trade policies, with tariffs on US imports from Canada, Mexico, and China coming into effect and triggering retaliatory measures.
The escalating trade war and resulting tariffs are likely to have a significant negative impact on the US economy, which could lead to more aggressive action by the Federal Reserve to support the economy. This is relevant for the portfolio's exposure to US and global equities, as well as its positions in US bonds and commodities.
US Stocks Extend Losses on Tariffs đ
US stocks fell around 1% as the escalating trade war triggered a flight to safety, raising concerns about the economic impact of new trade policies. Tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China came into effect, with retaliatory measures announced.
The escalating trade war and resulting tariffs are likely to have a significant negative impact on the portfolio, which has exposure to US stocks, global markets, and companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Meta that could be affected by the trade tensions.
US Futures Fall Amid Tariff Concerns đ
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined about 0.6% as the U.S. imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering retaliatory measures and concerns about the economic impact. Major tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet fell in premarket trading, while Tesla saw a nearly 50% drop in China vehicle sales in February.
The escalating trade war and its potential economic impact are likely to have a significant negative effect on the overall portfolio, which has significant exposure to the U.S. and global equity markets.
US Logistics Growth Strongest Since 2022 đ
The US Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) rose for a second consecutive month in February 2025, driven by a sharp increase in Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, and Warehousing Prices as firms rushed to avoid potential tariffs, straining supply chains.
The article indicates that the rise in the LMI, particularly the increase in inventory levels and costs, is likely to have a positive impact on the portfolio holdings, especially the long positions in the S&P500, European markets, and companies like Costco and Walmart that are involved in logistics and supply chain operations.
Dollar Falls for 2nd Day as Tariffs Weigh đ
The US dollar index fell to its lowest level in a week amid concerns over the escalating trade war, with new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China taking effect and prompting swift retaliation. The trade tensions are already impacting the US economy, with the ISM Manufacturing data showing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the sector.
The weakening of the US dollar is generally positive for the portfolio, which has significant exposure to international markets and assets. The trade tensions and their impact on the US economy could also benefit the portfolio's short position on oil and fossil fuels.
US Stocks Rebound on Powel's Remarks âšī¸
US stocks saw a volatile day on Friday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones all gaining, but the overall market outlook remains clouded by trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
The article discusses mixed economic data and ongoing uncertainty around US trade policies, which could have a moderate impact on the portfolio's performance, given its exposure to US and global equities.
US Credit Growth Surpasses Expectations in January đ
US consumer credit rose by $18.08 billion in January 2025, exceeding market expectations, with revolving credit growing at a robust 8.2% annual rate.
The strong consumer credit growth, especially in revolving credit, suggests continued consumer confidence and spending, which could benefit the portfolio's exposure to the US equity market and consumer-related stocks like Walmart and Costco.
US Stocks Gain as Powell Cites Economic Resilience âšī¸
The US stock market rebounded on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated confidence in inflation progress, but trade policy uncertainty and weak economic data weighed on major tech stocks like Amazon and Microsoft.
The article contains both positive and negative news for the portfolio. The Fed's patient stance on rates is positive, but the weak economic data and trade policy uncertainty are negative. The overall impact is neutral as the portfolio has a mix of long positions in US and global equities, as well as short positions in oil and fossil fuels that could benefit from the negative economic news.
US 10-Year Yield Edges Higher After Powel's Remarks âšī¸
The 10-year US Treasury yield edged up after Fed Chair Powell's comments, but remained near a four-month low due to uncertainty over US trade policy and concerns about economic growth, leading to increased demand for Treasuries.
The article discusses factors that could impact the US Treasury market, which is a significant part of the portfolio. However, the overall impact is neutral as the news is mixed, with some positive and some negative elements.
US Equities Pare Losses After Powel's Speech âšī¸
The stock market pared earlier losses after Fed Chair Powell reiterated confidence in inflation progress and signaled no urgency to cut rates, despite concerns over trade policy, economic growth, and a mixed labor report.
The article discusses a mixed market reaction to the Fed Chair's comments and economic data, which could have a moderate impact on the portfolio's overall performance given the diversified holdings.
Week Ahead - March 10th âšī¸
The article discusses upcoming economic data releases from the US, UK, Germany, Canada, China, India, Brazil, Russia, Poland, Turkey, and Australia that will provide insights into inflation, economic growth, and consumer/business sentiment.
The upcoming economic data releases cover a wide range of countries and economic indicators, which could impact various sectors and asset classes in the portfolio. However, the overall impact is likely to be moderate as the portfolio is diversified across different regions and asset types.
US Stocks Swing to End the Week âšī¸
The US jobs report showed slightly weaker than expected job growth in February, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly edging higher. This, along with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, has weighed on US stock market performance this week. Broadcom reported strong guidance, while Costco missed earnings expectations.
The jobs report indicates a slight softening in the labor market, which could have a modest negative impact on the overall portfolio. However, the impact is limited given the portfolio's diversification across different asset classes and regions. The Broadcom and Costco news is more company-specific and is unlikely to have a significant effect on the broader portfolio.
US Used Car Prices Fall in February âšī¸
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index in the US declined 0.7% month-over-month in February 2025, the largest drop since April 2024, with prices declining for luxury cars, SUVs, compact cars and mid-size sedans, but rising for trucks. Year-on-year, prices for used cars edged up 0.1%.
The decline in used vehicle prices is a neutral event for the portfolio, as it does not have a significant direct impact on the holdings. The portfolio has exposure to the broader US and European markets, as well as some specific companies like Walmart and Apple, but the used vehicle market is not a major driver for these investments.
Dollar Remains Under Pressure after NFP đ
The US dollar index declined for the fifth consecutive session, reaching a four-month low, as the latest US jobs report showed a slight softening in the labor market, with lower-than-expected job growth and wage growth, while ongoing trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
The decline in the US dollar index is generally positive for the portfolio, which has exposure to global markets and assets like gold and cryptocurrencies. The slightly weaker-than-expected labor market data and ongoing trade policy uncertainty could have a medium impact on the portfolio, as it may affect the broader economic outlook.
US 10-Year Yield Holds Rebound after NFP đ
The 10-year US Treasury yield held steady around 4.27% as tariff relief from the US government limited the rush to safety, while the latest labor data showed a modest increase in non-farm payrolls.
The article suggests a positive development for the portfolio, as the US Treasury yield stabilized and the labor market data was moderately positive, which could benefit the long positions in the S&P500, MSCI World, and US bonds.
US Futures Swing After NFP âšī¸
The latest US jobs report showed a slight softening in the labor market, with payrolls rising less than expected and the unemployment rate unexpectedly edging higher. However, the overall job market remains resilient, and uncertainty around tariffs continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
The jobs report indicates a slight slowdown in the labor market, which could have a moderate impact on the portfolio's exposure to the US economy and broader market sentiment. However, the overall resilience of the job market and the suspension of tariffs suggest a neutral impact on the portfolio.
US Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rises đ
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February 2025, with the number of unemployed individuals increasing by 203,000 and employment declining by 588,000. The labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio also decreased.
The rise in unemployment and decline in employment are generally negative for the overall economy and market sentiment, which could impact the portfolio's long positions in the S&P500, European, and other equity markets.
US Wage Growth Slows to 0.3% MoM as Forecast đ
US private nonfarm payrolls saw a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings in February 2025, in line with market expectations, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in January.
The increase in average hourly earnings is a positive sign for the US economy and could have a moderate impact on the portfolio, which includes exposure to the S&P 500, US bonds, and other US-based assets.
US Wage Growth Slows As Expected đ
US private nonfarm payrolls saw a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings in February 2025, following a 0.4% increase in January, in line with market expectations. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4%, slightly below market expectations.
The increase in average hourly earnings is a positive sign for the US economy and may have a moderate impact on the portfolio, which includes exposure to the S&P 500, US bonds, and other US-based assets.
US Economy Adds Fewer Jobs Than Expected âšī¸
The US economy added 151K jobs in February 2025, up from a revised 125K in January, with gains in healthcare, financial activities, and transportation, but declines in federal government, retail trade, and other sectors.
The overall job growth is slightly below expectations, with mixed performance across sectors. This is a neutral development for the portfolio, which has exposure to the broader US and global markets, as well as some specific sectors like technology and retail.
Dollar Falls for 5th Session đ
The US dollar index fell for the fifth consecutive session, reaching four-month lows, as ongoing trade policy uncertainty weighs on sentiment and the economic outlook. Despite the easing of some tariffs, early signs suggest the new administration's policies are already impacting the economy.
The weakening of the US dollar is generally positive for the portfolio, which has significant exposure to non-US markets and assets. The continued trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the US economy is a relevant factor, though the overall impact is assessed as medium given the portfolio's diversification.
US Job Growth to Remain Strong in February đ
The US economy is expected to add 160K jobs in February 2025, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4% and wages rising 0.3% month-over-month, slowing from January's 0.5% increase. The report is expected to confirm the labor market's resilience, though federal spending cuts and tariffs are expected to weigh on the labor market in the coming months.
The positive jobs report is generally beneficial for the portfolio, which has significant exposure to the US and global equity markets. However, the potential impact of federal spending cuts and tariffs on the labor market in the coming months could be a concern.
Bitcoin Falls Even as Trump Creates Reserve đ
Bitcoin prices fell below $90,000 despite an executive order by US President Trump to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by seized bitcoins, as the news failed to generate new buying pressure in the market.
The news is negative for the portfolio's Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings, as it did not result in increased buying pressure and led to a sell-off in Bitcoin prices. However, the overall impact is medium since the portfolio's crypto exposure is limited to 20%.